Ukraine Softens Stance on Russian Withdrawal: Borders No Longer a Red Line

In a significant shift in Ukraine’s stance, the Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, indicated in an interview with Swedish publication Dagens Industri that negotiations with Russia could begin if the situation returns to the conditions of February 23, 2022—the day before Russia’s full-scale entry to the war. This marks a departure from Ukraine’s earlier demands for a complete withdrawal of Russian forces to the 1991 borders or current (mostly) internationally recognised, encompassing Crimea and all territories in the Donbas region.

A New Starting Point

Yermak emphasized that meaningful negotiations require a willingness from all parties to end hostilities. He stated:

"Fruitful negotiations are possible only when all warring parties have a desire to stop hostilities. In addition, the situation must be returned at least to the state of February 23, 2022. This would be a starting point for further settlement, since until that date part of Ukraine was occupied. But Russia shows no signs of such readiness, continuing the escalation."

This is the second time this month that Yermak has highlighted the February 24, 2022, line as a potential basis for peace talks. In early November, he similarly suggested that Ukraine could consider opening negotiations if Russian forces retreat to the positions they held before their full-scale entry to the war.

A Shift in Strategy

For much of the conflict, Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, had maintained that negotiations with Russia were only possible after the complete withdrawal of Russian troops to Ukraine’s internationally recognized 1991 borders. This position included the return of Crimea, and parts of the Donbass.

However, the ongoing conflict and its challenges have prompted a reassessment of this stance. Zelensky himself recently acknowledged the difficulty of reclaiming all territories by military means, signaling a potential shift toward more pragmatic objectives.

The Role of Western Support

Ukraine’s adjusted position may also reflect broader strategic considerations, including the level of Western support and the realities of prolonged warfare. Western allies have continued to provide substantial military and financial aid, but some have also expressed concerns about the conflict’s duration and global economic consequences.

The New York Times recently reported that Ukrainian officials have deprioritized the return of all territories, focusing instead on achievable goals. This recalibration could be aimed at securing international backing for a negotiated settlement that halts further escalation while preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Implications for Peace

Ukraine’s revised stance may be a pragmatic step toward breaking the current deadlock, but it also raises questions about the future of the country as a whole.

This approach could open the door to international mediation efforts and a potential diplomatic resolution, but many factions within Ukraine remain committed to a full Russian withdrawl.

Conclusion

Andriy Yermak’s comments underscore a notable evolution in Ukraine’s approach to the conflict, reflecting both the complexities of prolonged warfare and the importance of pragmatism in achieving peace. While the ultimate resolution remains uncertain, this shift could lay the groundwork for future negotiations.